Szymborski: Overvalued, undervalued hitters (2024)

While it's not the only thing determining your fantasy fate, a solid draft is always a nice way to start the season. After all, who wants to be playing catch-up before spring training is even over?

There's an old joke about two campers running from a bear. One camper asks his friend, "Do you really think you can outrun a bear?" His friend responds, "No, but I can run faster than you." A fantasy draft is a lot like this: You're not simply trying to evaluate players well, but getting more value from as many picks as you can than your friends/enemies.

You never want to go into a draft with a rigid plan, but in addition to your own rankings, you also want to know how your opponents are planning to draft. You can draft an amazing breakout candidate at 20, but if it was likely that nobody in your league was going to start thinking about the player until 80, you're not maximizing the value. I go into every draft in March with my cheat sheet, but I also pay attention to the biggest disagreement between ZiPS projections (with adjustments for expected playing time) and average draft position. Below are some of my over/undervalued players in this year's fantasy drafts -- though not all of them, just in case you're in one of my fantasy leagues!

For undervalued/overvalued pitchers, click here.

Catcher

Overvalued: Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati Reds
ZiPS Rank: 150 | ADP: 99.9

Mesoraco had a wonderful 2014 season, hitting .273 with 25 homers and 80 RBIs on his way to finishing third among catchers on the ESPN Player Rater. While he's always been a very talented player who possibly had a season like that in him, you should be wary of players whose draft position is predicated on their value in exactly one season. Mesoraco was always expected to break out, but these kinds of massive breakouts typically come with a step back or two and that's enough to put Mesoraco into the very large second tier that you don't have to aggressively draft.

Undervalued: Russell Martin, Toronto Blue Jays
ZiPS Rank: 139 | ADP: 213.3

Martin is unlikely to hit .290 again, but he's also going to a friendlier environment for home runs and whatever the faults of the Toronto Blue Jays, they're a team likely to be at or near the top of the AL in runs scored in 2015. ZiPS projects only a .237 BA for Martin, but 18 HRs and 72 RBIs with a few stolen bases, so he's worthy of a pick in that vast second tier of catchers and will be available on the board long enough that you can be patient and look elsewhere.

First base

Overvalued: Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers
ZiPS Rank: 374 | ADP: 59.8

This is Fielder's second appearance in a row in this column. Never a player expected to age well and already coming off what was a down year, Fielder's 2014 was ruined by a back problem that ended his season with surgery to repair the herniated disk in his neck. The Rangers look a lot worse than they did a year ago at this time, yet Fielder is still being drafted by the end of the fifth round in 12-team leagues. If you're more optimistic than the computer about his aging, go ahead and draft Fielder well before 374 (I'm not), but don't value him as if he's already made a successful comeback.

Undervalued: Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
ZiPS Rank: 31 | ADP: 77.6

If Davis qualified only as a first baseman, ZiPS ranked him 184th in its overall rankings. But thanks to his games played at third base in 2014, a situation created by Manny Machado's injuries and a lack of depth at the hot corner in Baltimore, fantasy players -- depending on format -- have a great opportunity to snag Davis at 3B or a fallback position at first base. Even at first, ZiPS ranks Davis as 12th at the position, so it's not a total write-off if you end up having to play him at his "real" position because of injuries.

Second base

Overvalued: Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians
ZiPS Rank: 117 | ADP: 72.8

When last year's 17th-ranked player at a position is being drafted fifth at the position, you'd better have a very good reason to be interested. While Kipnis is almost certainly better than he played in 2014, there's limited reason to consider his 2013 his reasonable expected performance either. ZiPS sees the middle ground, somewhere around his 2012 performance as the best expectation and ranks Kipnis at ninth at the position, behind Dee Gordon, Daniel Murphy, Rougned Odor and Howie Kendrick, all players being drafted later (and some much later).

Undervalued: Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
ZiPS Rank: 97 | ADP: 205.3

Odor's .259/9/48 line didn't exactly win your fantasy league, but it was an amazing line for a 20-year-old player who had played only two months of Double-A ball in 2013 and 2014, skipping Triple-A to be dragooned into service ahead of time thanks to injuries. The loss of Jurickson Profar has made Odor's path to a full-time job much easier, and ZiPS is bullish on his growth. Getting one of the second-tier second basem*n late in the draft is an excellent value. With Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy out there, there's no reason to draft second basem*n aggressively if you miss out on Robinson Cano/Jose Altuve/Anthony Rendon.

Third base

Overvalued: Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
ZiPS Rank: 232 | ADP: 101.2

The classic example of a player who is better in real life than in fantasy, Machado being a shortstop playing third base helps the Orioles a lot more than your fantasy team. His injury history does matter, and even if it doesn't prevent him from breaking out, there's also a good deal of associated risk with Machado and his likely fantasy production is probably not elite enough to keep from being conservative with your valuation. Despite his talent, it's hard to justify taking Machado when players like David Wright are still on the board rounds later.

Undervalued: Chase Headley, New York Yankees
ZiPS Rank: 93 | ADP: 226.0

Talk about a forgotten player! Teams only remembered Chase Headley existed after Pablo Sandoval was signed this winter and the Headley-related amnesia seems to have extended to fantasy players. I'm not quite as optimistic as ZiPS is, but even the pick 140-160 area I'd likely rank Headley in is far ahead of the 226 he's been going at so far in mock drafts. Headley was never a great fit for Petco Park with a career OPS 88 points better in road games, and even if he doesn't hit 30 homers again, the more friendly confines of Yankee Stadium should boost his power stats enough to make him a value pick at this ADP.

Shortstop

Overvalued: Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
ZiPS Rank: 210 | ADP: 114.5

Andrus was the rare Rangers player who was actually healthy, but he finished only 13th on the Player Rater in 2014. This year, he's still being drafted seventh among shortstops, but with no power or even power upside and likely one of the lowest RBI totals among shortstops, he needs to do a lot elsewhere to justify this position. But he doesn't: ZiPS SS rankings place Andrus sixth among SS-eligibles in runs, 10th in batting average and first in stolen bases, which isn't as exciting as it sounds given that the 10th-place player is only 12 steals behind.

Undervalued: Wilmer Flores, New York Mets
ZiPS Rank: 108 | ADP: Undrafted

With the Mets unable to acquire a shortstop in the offseason and really not wanting to go back to Ruben Tejada, the organization is giving Flores every chance to take the job. And the odds are good -- his .323/.367/.568 line was even good for the Pacific Coast League last season and many of the shortstops after the first few have question marks. Defense counts in fantasy, but only indirectly: You need a player to be good enough to play the position in the majors at some point.

Outfield

Overvalued: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
ZiPS Rank: 63 | ADP: 36.8

I'm a big fan of Harper and he's at the top of my list of breakout candidates. But as much as I think he's still going to be a major star for a long time, in a fantasy draft, 11th among outfielders is too rich for my blood. Harper is quite a polarizing player and there's no doubt that someone in your league is likely to value him as if his breakout year already has happened. Let them.

Undervalued: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
ZiPS Rank: 15 | ADP: 31.2

Braun is still only 31, so it's too soon to be confident that Braun has driven over the proverbial cliff. And given the complete lack of data showing players being busts after being busted for performance-enhancing drugs, it would be a mistake to simply decide Braun was never that good and move on. Braun's defense has become quite rough, but that doesn't matter in fantasy and ZiPS likes him enough bounce back to a .287 batting average, 26 homers and 97 RBIs with 16 stolen bases tacked on.

Overvalued: Justin Upton, San Diego Padres
ZiPS Rank: 93 | ADP: 41.5

This isn't so much a knock on Upton as the realities of Petco Park. While some players have fared better than expected in San Diego (see Carlos Quentin some years), it's still a tough place for a hitter and unless you're playing a very unusual format, the fact that his park-neutral performance is likely to be significantly better than his raw stats is unlikely to help you.

Overvalued: Jason Heyward, St. Louis Cardinals
ZiPS Rank: 174 | ADP: 83.8

Heyward does a lot of things that will help the St. Louis Cardinals win games. Problem is, Gold Glove defense in right field and drawing walks aren't valued highly in most fantasy formats unless you're in a league using OBP. In the traditional 5x5 fantasy stats, Heyward looks far more lackluster. Overall, ZiPS ranks Heyward 33rd among outfielders, and the top 100 is just too early to take the 33rd-best outfielder, even if he still has potential upside left.

Undervalued: Yoenis Cespedes, Detroit Tigers
ZiPS Rank: 27 | ADP: 50.1

Cespedes seems to alternate between being underrated and overrated. Cespedes is going to have a lousy on-base percentage, hurting his value in real life, but unless you're in that OBP league that values Jason Heyward's numbers highly, that's not so big a deal. ZiPS projects .275, 26 homers and 98 RBIs with 84 runs from Cespedes in a full year, that line being enough to rank ninth among outfielders. In actual drafts, Cespedes has been the 16th outfielder off the board.