PA Presidential Election Survey - Spring 2024 (2024)

PA Presidential Election Survey — Spring 2024

PDF: Pennsylvania Presidential Election Survey - Spring 2024

Key Findings

  1. With the 2024 Presidential Election six months away, former President Donald Trump holds a narrow three point lead (44% to 41%) over President Joe Biden in a head-to-head contest to win Pennsylvania’s 19 Electoral College votes.

    PA Presidential Election Survey - Spring 2024 (1)

  2. When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included as an option in the presidential race, Biden and Trump are tied (35%-35%) with Kennedy the choice of 18% of survey respondents.

    PA Presidential Election Survey - Spring 2024 (2)

  3. President Biden’s effort to win Pennsylvania this November is being undermined by poor job approval ratings (35%) and limited voter sentiment that he deserves a second term in the White House (33%).
  4. Both Biden and Trump carry high unfavorable ratings among Pennsylvania voters as they head into the last half-year of the campaign with 57% of voters holding an unfavorable view of Biden and 55% maintaining an unfavorable view of Trump.
  5. In the United States Senate race in Pennsylvania, three-term incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. holds a four point lead (45% to 41%) over Republican challenger David McCormick.

    PA Presidential Election Survey - Spring 2024 (3)

  6. Pennsylvania voters are highly divided on which party’s candidate they support in their Congressional district this fall with 45% indicating they plan to vote for a Democratic candidate and 44% intending to vote for a Republican candidate.

    PA Presidential Election Survey - Spring 2024 (4)

  7. Pennsylvania’s 48th Governor, Josh Shapiro continues to receive positive job approval reviews from Commonwealth voters with nearly 2 out of 3 (64%) approving of the first-term Democrat’s work as the Commonwealth’s chief executive.
  8. Voter confidence in the use of mail ballots in Pennsylvania is mixed with about 4 in 10 (43%) reporting that they are either “not too confident” or “not confident at all” with voting by mail.
  9. Confidence in mail ballots is highly affected by party registration status with 84% of Democrats confident (either very or somewhat) in this method compared with only 28% of their Republican counterparts.
  10. Pennsylvania voters identified voter suppression (32%), voting fraud (25%) and the use of mail ballots (19%) as the biggest threats to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2024, with Democrats most concerned about voting suppression and Republicans concerns centered on fraud and mail ballot use.

Methodological Statement

The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 417 registered voters in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania between April 15 and 25, 2024. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines (82) and cell phones (335). With a randomly selected sample of respondents, the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 6% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger.In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. The data has been weighted to gender, age, region, party, race, and educational attainment to reflect voter population parameters in Pennsylvania. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above.In order to reach a representative sample of registered voters both landlines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Interviews were conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton Pennsylvania. Due to rounding, the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. Data analysis and weighting were conducted through the use of the SPSS statistical software package Version 29.0.2. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick is conjunction with the staff of theMuhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion(MCIPO). The survey was funded exclusively by the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Borick at [emailprotected].

Survey Instrument and Frequency Report

Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)

  1. Democrat…………………..45%
  2. Republican…………………41%
  3. Independent ………………..13%
  4. Other Party………………...<1%
  5. Not Registered to Vote in Pennsylvania (END SURVEY)
  6. Not Sure (Volunteered) (END SURVEY)
  7. Refused (Volunteered) (END SURVEY)

Q1A: How likely are you to vote in the November 2024 presidential election? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting?

  1. Definitely Voting…………………. 77%
  2. Very Likely to Vote………………..20%
  3. Not Too Likely to Vote……………. 4%
  4. Definitely Not Voting(TERMINATE)
  5. Unsure(VOLUNTEERED/TERMINATE)

Q2: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of him is favorable or unfavorable. (ROTATE)

First, Joe Biden

  1. Favorable…………………36%
  2. Unfavorable……………… 57%
  3. Neutral/Not Sure………… 7%
  4. Haven't heard of Him……. 0%

December 2023

April 2024

Favorable

32%

36%

Unfavorable

55%

57%

Neutral/Not Sure

13%

7%

Haven't heard of Him

0%

0%

Q3: Next, Donald Trump

  1. Favorable………………… 39%
  2. Unfavorable………………55%
  3. Neutral/Not Sure…………6%
  4. Haven't heard of Him… 0%

December 2023

April 2024

Favorable

33%

39%

Unfavorable

56%

55%

Neutral/Not Sure

11%

6%

Haven't heard of Him

0%

0%

Q4: Bob Casey Jr.

  1. Favorable………………… 39%
  2. Unfavorable……………… 33%
  3. Neutral/Not Sure………… 20%
  4. Haven't heard of Him……. 8%

Q5: David McCormick

  1. Favorable………………… 28%
  2. Unfavorable……………… 26%
  3. Neutral/Not Sure………… 29%
  4. Haven't heard of Him……. 17%

Q6: Next, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President?

  1. Approve………………………35%
  2. Disapprove……………………61%
  3. No opinion (Volunteered).........5%

December 2023

April 2024

Approve

34%

35%

Disapprove

57%

61%

No Opinion

9%

5%

Q7: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Josh Shapiro is handling his job as Governor of Pennsylvania?

  1. Approve………………………64%
  2. Disapprove……………………19%
  3. No opinion (Volunteered).........17%

December 2023

April 2024

Approve

51%

64%

Disapprove

21%

19%

No Opinion

28%

17%

Q8: Do you think Joe Biden deserves to be re-elected as President, or not?

  1. Deserves re-election……………..33%
  2. Does not deserve re-elected……..64%
  3. Not Sure…………………………. 3%

December 2023

April 2024

Deserves re-election

28%

33%

Does not deserve re-elected

65%

64%

Not Sure

7%

3%

Q9: Now, if the 2024 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)

  1. Biden……………………………41%
  2. Trump…………………………...44%
  3. Neither/Other (Volunteered)........14%
  4. Not Sure (Volunteered)...............1%

December 2023

April 2024

Biden

42%

41%

Trump

41%

44%

Neither/Other

16%

14%

Not Sure

1%

1%

Q10: Next, if the 2024 presidential election was being held today and the race was between Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)

  1. Biden……………………….35%
  2. Trump………………………35%
  3. Kennedy……………………18%
  4. Neither/Other………………. 9%
  5. 98. Not Sure (Volunteered)....... 3%

Q11: Next, if the 2024 United States Senate race in Pennsylvania was being held today and the race was between Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and David McCormick the Republican, who would you vote for.

  1. Casey…………………………..45%
  2. McCormick……………………41%
  3. Neither/Other (Volunteered).....5%
  4. Not Sure (Volunteered)..............8%

Q12: If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party's candidate would you vote for in your district? The Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican Party's candidate? (OPTIONS ROTATED)

  1. Democrat………………………..45%
  2. Republican……………………...44%
  3. Neither/Other (Volunteered)........5%
  4. Not Sure (Volunteered)..............7%

December 2023

April 2024

Democrat

42%

45%

Republican

41%

44%

Neither/Other

16%

5%

Not Sure

1%

7%

Next, I have a few questions about your level of confidence in the 2020 electoral process in Pennsylvania. For each aspect of the election process that I mention, tell me if you are very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident or not confident at all with the aspect mentioned. First how confident are you: (ROTATE OPTIONS)

Very Confident

Somewhat Confident

Not Too Confident

Not Confident At All

Not Sure

Q13: That the final results of the 2020 election accurately reflected how Pennsylvanians voted.

35%

23%

21%

20%

1%

Q14: That the 2020 elections in Pennsylvania were conducted in a fair way.

38%

21%

19%

21%

2%

Q15: That Joe Biden received the most votes in the presidential election in Pennsylvania.

40%

16%

19%

24%

1%

Q16: That there was widespread election fraud in the 2020 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania.

25%

18%

17%

39%

1%

How confident are you that, across the country, votes cast in the following methods will be accurately cast and counted in this November’s elections.? First:(ROTATE OPTIONS)

Very Confident

Somewhat Confident

Not Too Confident

Not at all Confident

Not Sure

Q17: Paper Ballots

36%

37%

15%

11%

1%

Q18: Electronic Voting systems

51%

33%

9%

8%

<1%

Q19: Mail ballots

29%

28%

21%

22%

0%

Q20. Which of the following do you think is the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2024? (ROTATE OPTIONS)

  1. Foreign interference in the election…………13%
  2. Voting machines malfunctioning…………... 7%
  3. Voter fraud…………………………………. 25%
  4. The use of mail ballots ……………………. 19%
  5. Suppression of individuals from voting…… 32%
  6. Other factor(Volunteered)........................... 3%
  7. Not Sure (Volunteered)................................ 1%

Q21: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST)?

  1. White/Caucasian……………….79%
  2. Black/African-American……… 8%
  3. Hispanic/Latino……………….. 4%
  4. Asian………………………….. 2%
  5. Native American……………… <1%
  6. Mixed race……………………. 5%
  7. or other……………………….. 1%
  8. Not Sure (Volunteered)........... 1%

Q22: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST)?

  1. Catholic……………………………….29%
  2. Protestant…………………………….. 34%
  3. Jewish………………………………... 2%
  4. Muslim………………………………. 2%
  5. Hindu…………………………………. 1%
  6. Other Religion (Including agnostic).....25%
  7. or Atheist ……………………………. 5%
  8. Not Sure (Volunteered)...................... 1%

Q23: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)

  1. Less than High School……………… 2%
  2. High School Graduate……………… 25%
  3. Some college or technical school….. 30%
  4. College graduate (4 yr only).............. 27%
  5. Graduate or professional degree…… 15%

Q24: In the 2020 Presidential election did you vote for:

  1. Donald Trump……………………………………………43%
  2. Joe Biden………………………………………………....44%
  3. Another Candidate………………………………………. 4%
  4. Or did you not vote in the2020 presidential election……. 8%
  5. Not Sure (Volunteered)...................................................... 1%

Q25: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST)?

  1. Under $20,000………………5%
  2. $20,000-$40,000……………13%
  3. $40,000-$60,000……………21%
  4. $60,000-$80,000……………20%
  5. $80,000-$100,000…………..15%
  6. Over $100,000………………27%

Q26: In which of the following age categories does your current age fall. READ LIST _______

  1. 18-29……………..16%
  2. 30-49……………..31%
  3. 50-65……………..27%
  4. or Over 65………..27%

Q27: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST)

  1. Male………………………………………………..49%
  2. Female………………………………………….…..51%
  3. Or another category besides Male or Female………<1%

Selected Crosstabs

Biden vs. Trump

Biden

Trump

Neither/Other

Not Sure

Overall

41%

44%

14%

1%

Male

39%

47%

14%

0%

Female

43%

42%

13%

2%

White

40%

47%

12%

1%

Person of Color

45%

33%

20%

1%

No 4 Year Degree

33%

49%

16%

2%

4 Year Degree

51%

38%

10%

1%

18-29

45%

42%

14%

0%

30-49

38%

41%

18%

3%

50-65

36%

51%

13%

0%

Over 65

46%

43%

9%

2%

Biden 2020

80%

3%

17%

0%

Trump 2020

5%

88%

6%

1%

Democrat

76%

7%

15%

1%

Republican

5%

87%

5%

2%

Independent

28%

39%

33%

0%

Definitely Voting

43%

45%

11%

1%

Very/Not Too Likely Voting

32%

43%

22%

3%

Biden/Trump/Kennedy

Biden

Trump

Kennedy

None of Them/Other

Not Sure

Overall

35%

35%

18%

9%

3%

Male

34%

38%

16%

9%

3%

Female

35%

32%

20%

9%

3%

White

33%

38%

18%

8%

3%

Person of Color

45%

21%

22%

12%

1%

No 4 Year Degree

28%

37%

23%

8%

3%

4 Year Degree

45%

32%

11%

10%

2%

18-29

35%

29%

32%

3%

0%

30-49

33%

32%

16%

13%

6%

50-65

31%

38%

20%

9%

2%

Over 65

40%

38%

11%

8%

3%

Biden 2020

68%

3%

15%

12%

2%

Trump 2020

5%

73%

17%

2%

4%

Democrat

64%

6%

14%

13%

2%

Republican

5%

71%

17%

3%

5%

Independent

24%

22%

35%

15%

4%

Definitely Voting

39%

37%

14%

7%

3%

Very/Not Too Likely Voting

20%

29%

32%

16%

4%

Casey vs. McCormick

Casey

McCormick

Neither/Other

Not Sure

Overall

45%

41%

5%

8%

Male

45%

43%

5%

7%

Female

46%

39%

6%

10%

White

43%

45%

4%

8%

Person of Color

55%

25%

11%

8%

No 4 Year Degree

40%

43%

6%

11%

4 Year Degree

53%

38%

4%

5%

18-29

41%

33%

8%

19%

30-49

40%

45%

6%

10%

50-65

46%

44%

6%

4%

Over 65

54%

39%

3%

5%

Biden 2020

83%

8%

4%

4%

Trump 2020

10%

81%

5%

5%

Democrat

80%

7%

5%

8%

Republican

10%

79%

5%

6%

Independent

37%

39%

11%

13%

Definitely Voting

47%

42%

4%

7%

Very/Not Too Likely Voting

39%

38%

10%

13%

Congress: Democrat vs. Republican

Democrat

Republican

Neither/Other

Not Sure

Overall

45%

44%

5%

7%

Male

43%

48%

4%

6%

Female

47%

41%

6%

7%

White

42%

47%

6%

6%

Person of Color

57%

31%

2%

10%

No 4 Year Degree

41%

48%

5%

7%

4 Year Degree

51%

39%

5%

6%

18-29

49%

42%

3%

6%

30-49

42%

43%

5%

9%

50-65

47%

45%

4%

5%

Over 65

43%

45%

6%

6%

Biden 2020

83%

7%

6%

5%

Trump 2020

7%

88%

2%

3%

Democrat

82%

6%

5%

7%

Republican

7%

87%

2%

5%

Independent

36%

38%

15%

11%

Definitely Voting

45%

44%

5%

6%

Very/Not Too Likely Voting

45%

42%

4%

9%

Joe Biden received the most votes in the presidential election in Pennsylvania.

Very Confident

Somewhat Confident

Not Too Confident

Not Confident At All

Not Sure

Male

39%

11%

20%

28%

1%

Female

40%

21%

18%

20%

1%

White

37%

18%

19%

25%

1%

Person of Color

49%

10%

17%

21%

4%

No 4 Year Degree

34%

15%

22%

27%

2%

4 Year Degree

47%

18%

14%

20%

1%

18-29

42%

23%

19%

16%

0%

30-49

38%

20%

20%

21%

2%

50-65

32%

8%

23%

35%

2%

Over 65

47%

15%

15%

23%

1%

Biden 2020

76%

16%

6%

2%

0%

Trump 2020

4%

11%

35%

47%

2%

Democrat

73%

14%

5%

7%

1%

Republican

9%

15%

31%

44%

1%

Independent

22%

22%

28%

24%

4%

Definitely Voting

41%

14%

19%

25%

1%

Very/Not Too Likely Voting

36%

21%

21%

20%

2%

There was widespread election fraud in the 2020 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania.

Very Confident

Somewhat Confident

Not Too Confident

Not Confident At All

Not Sure

Male

29%

19%

14%

38%

1%

Female

23%

16%

21%

39%

1%

White

25%

19%

17%

38%

1%

Person of Color

26%

13%

17%

44%

0%

No 4 Year Degree

28%

20%

16%

34%

2%

4 Year Degree

22%

14%

19%

45%

1%

18-29

20%

12%

23%

44%

2%

30-49

23%

18%

25%

34%

0%

50-65

35%

21%

11%

33%

1%

Over 65

22%

18%

12%

47%

2%

Biden 2020

5%

10%

15%

69%

0%

Trump 2020

46%

29%

16%

9%

1%

Democrat

11%

9%

18%

63%

0%

Republican

43%

30%

13%

12%

2%

Independent

20%

9%

28%

43%

0%

Definitely Voting

25%

18%

17%

40%

1%

Very/Not Too Likely Voting

26%

18%

20%

35%

2%

Mail Ballots

Very Confident

Somewhat Confident

Not Too Confident

Not Confident At All

Male

31%

24%

19%

27%

Female

26%

33%

23%

18%

White

29%

27%

20%

24%

Person of Color

30%

32%

23%

16%

No 4 Year Degree

25%

27%

22%

27%

4 Year Degree

34%

30%

19%

17%

18-29

20%

29%

34%

17%

30-49

25%

33%

21%

21%

50-65

25%

24%

23%

28%

Over 65

40%

27%

12%

21%

Biden 2020

53%

37%

7%

3%

Trump 2020

6%

20%

32%

42%

Democrat

50%

35%

12%

4%

Republican

8%

21%

29%

43%

Independent

25%

32%

25%

19%

Definitely Voting

30%

25%

20%

24%

Very/Not Too Likely Voting

22%

38%

24%

16%

Which of the following do you think is the biggest threat to Pennsylvania having a safe, secure and accurate election in 2024?

Foreign interference in the election

Voting machines malfunctioning

Voter fraud

The use of mail ballots

Suppression of individuals from voting

Other Factor

Not Sure

Male

14%

8%

25%

21%

29%

3%

1%

Female

12%

6%

26%

16%

36%

3%

1%

White

13%

7%

27%

19%

30%

2%

1%

Person of Color

12%

7%

17%

18%

42%

5%

0%

No 4 Year Degree

10%

7%

26%

22%

31%

3%

0%

4 Year Degree

16%

6%

24%

15%

34%

2%

2%

18-29

11%

12%

26%

12%

37%

0%

2%

30-49

11%

7%

29%

13%

36%

4%

0%

50-65

12%

4%

25%

27%

27%

4%

1%

Over 65

16%

7%

21%

21%

30%

2%

2%

Biden 2020

21%

8%

10%

4%

53%

3%

0%

Trump 2020

6%

5%

39%

33%

15%

1%

1%

Democrat

19%

10%

12%

8%

47%

4%

0%

Republican

6%

5%

41%

29%

15%

2%

1%

Independent

13%

4%

20%

22%

38%

2%

2%

Definitely Voting

13%

8%

25%

20%

32%

2%

1%

Very/Not Too Likely Voting

11%

5%

28%

15%

35%

4%

1%

TIME SERIES FOR ELECTION PROCESS QUESTIONS

Perspectives on 2020 Election Process and Results

Very Confident

Somewhat Confident

Not Too Confident

Not Confident At All

Not Sure

2020

2021

2024

2020

2021

2024

2020

2021

2024

2020

2021

2024

2020

2021

2024

That the final results of the 2020 election accurately reflected how Pennsylvanians voted.

49%

35%

35%

8%

20%

23%

6%

15%

21%

34%

28%

20%

3%

1%

1%

That the 2020 elections in Pennsylvania were conducted in a fair way.

49%

39%

38%

11%

22%

21%

9%

14%

19%

31%

24%

21%

1%

1%

2%

That Joe Biden received the most votes in the presidential election in Pennsylvania.

52%

44%

40%

7%

12%

16%

9%

13%

19%

30%

29%

24%

3%

2%

1%

That there was widespread election fraud in the 2020 Presidential Election in Pennsylvania.

31%

29%

25%

10%

13%

18%

7%

16%

17%

50%

38%

39%

2%

4%

1%

Confidence in Voting Methods

Very Confident

Somewhat Confident

Not Too Confident

Not Confident At All

Not Sure

2021

2024

2021

2024

2021

2024

2021

2024

2021

2024

Paper Ballots

36%

36%

29%

37%

15%

15%

18%

11%

2%

1%

Electronic Voting systems

37%

51%

32%

33%

14%

9%

17%

8%

1%

1%

Mail ballots

29%

29%

21%

28%

13%

21%

37%

22%

1%

0%

Biggest Threat to Integrity of Next Election

FEBRUARY 2020

AUGUST 2020

OCTOBER 2020

DECEMBER 2020

DECEMBER 2021

APRIL 2024

Foreign interference in the election

17%

14%

8%

5%

8%

13%

Voting machines malfunctioning

22%

7%

3%

5%

6%

7%

Voter fraud

25%

39%

40%

33%

24%

25%

The Use of Mail Ballots

NA

NA

NA

NA

19%

19%

Suppression of individuals from voting

21%

30%

34%

30%

35%

32%

Other Factor (Vol)

15%

4%

5%

13%

5%

3%

Not Sure

1%

7%

11%

15%

4%

1%

Note: “The Use of Mail Ballots” was not included in survey waves before 2021

PA Presidential Election Survey - Spring 2024 (2024)

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